Topic 1. Characteristics of Private Credit
Topic 2. Private Credit Investors and Borrowers
Topic 3. Private Credit vs. Other Types of Loans
Topic 4. Private Credit Growth
Topic 5. Private Credit Returns
Typical Investors
Q1. To minimize liquidity risk, which of the following investment structures would most likely be utilized as an intermediary between borrowers and end investors in a private credit structure?
A. Closed-end fund.
B. Open-ended fund.
C. Collateralized loan obligation (CLO).
D. Business development company (BDC).
Explanation: A is correct.
Closed-end funds comprise over 80% of the total private credit market. They have a capital call structure and limited lifecycle that are comparable to private equity funds. The limitations on redemptions under the closed-end structure greatly assist in reducing liquidity risk. The other structures are far less common (e.g., about 5% for CLOs and about 14% for BDCs).
Alternatives to Private Credit
​Traditional Bank Loans: Conventional lending directly from banks to borrowers as an alternative financing source
Q2. In recent years, which of the following asset classes has outperformed private credit?
A. Real estate.
B. Private equity.
C. Venture capital.
D. Natural resources.
Explanation: B is correct.
Regarding returns in recent years (since 2020), private equity has significantly outperformed private credit, while private credit has had similar performance as natural resources and somewhat better performance than real estate. Private credit has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and venture capital during this time period.
Topic 1. Risks to Financial Stability
Topic 2. Credit Risks
Topic 3. Liquidity Risks
Topic 4. Leverage Risks
Topic 5. Valuation Risks
Topic 6. Interconnectedness Risks
Topic 7. Underwriting Standards
Topic 8. Policies for Mitigating Private Credit Risks
Topic 9. Credit Risks Mitigation
Topic 10. Liquidity Risks Mitigation
Topic 11. Leverage Risks Mitigation
Topic 12. Valuation Risks Mitigation
Topic 13. Interconnectedness Risks Mitigation
Topic 14. Conduct Risks Mitigation
Private Credit: Shift and Transparency Concerns
Potential Systemic Risks
Credit risk in private credit is characterized by below factors:
​Interest Rate Sensitivity: Private credit borrowers are highly sensitive to rising interest rates since virtually all loans are floating rate
Q1. Historically speaking, which of the following asset classes has experienced the highest level of losses?
A. Leveraged loans.
B. High-yield bonds.
C. Private credit loans.
D. Broadly syndicated loans.
Explanation: B is correct.
Private credit losses have historically been lower than those for high-yield bonds, and private credit losses are similar to those for leveraged loans (leveraged loans are below investment grade). The backing of private equity firms has certainly reduced defaults. Additionally, the fact that most private credit loans require collateral has also reduced the amount of credit losses. In general, syndicated loans have a relatively deep secondary trading market and are investment grade, so their losses are likely the lowest of all four answer choices.
Liquidity risk and its management in private credit has several dynamic components, as listed below.
Limited Valuation Usefulness
​Core Issues: Private credit valuations have limited utility due to few or no comparable transactions, infrequent valuations, and absence of secondary markets to corroborate valuations
Valuation Methodology Problems
​Illiquidity Challenges: Long-term loans are illiquid and specifically designed for individual parties, making it difficult to find comparable transactions for accurate valuation
Price Sensitivity and Discounts
​Lower Shock Sensitivity: Private credit asset prices are less sensitive to market shocks compared to high-yield bonds and leveraged loans
Advantages of Stale Valuations
​Minimized Runoff Risk: While stale valuations could allow astute investors to withdraw before write-downs, redemption restrictions substantially minimize this risk
Disadvantages of Stale Valuations
​Impaired Risk Assessment: Infrequent valuations prevent investors from accurately assessing risks and making effective investment decisions
Interconnections among Market Participants
​Bank and Institutional Investor Exposure
Private-Equity Influenced Life Insurance Concerns
​Cash Flow Utilization: PE-influenced insurers provide PE firms with reliable premium cash flows that can be invested in illiquid assets established by the PE firms themselves
Liquidity Risk for Institutional Investors
Q2. In the context of vulnerabilities and potential risks to financial stability in corporate private credit, which of the following risks is currently of greatest concern?
A. Credit risk.
B. Conduct risk.
C. Liquidity risk.
D. Interconnectedness risk.
Explanation: D is correct.
Interconnectedness risk is also related to leverage risk due to the existence of multiple layers of leverage. This risk exists because the private equity and private credit industries are closely intertwined. For example, many borrowing firms in private credit loans have a private equity sponsor. Although this mitigates credit risk, it does exacerbate interconnectedness risk. The close connection between private credit and private equity suggests that vulnerabilities in one could easily spill over to the other.
Information Gaps and Reporting Issues
Q3. Which of the following statements regarding policy recommendations on private credit risks is most accurate?
A. The provision of more frequent redemptions to investors within private credit fund investments gives rise to potential conduct risks.
B. Given that private credit risks are largely mitigated, authorities need to be careful not to take an overly regulatory approach that would limit the growth of this emerging asset class.
C. The existence of regulatory arbitrage across borders and sectors has helped in mitigating excessive concentration of private credit risk in certain jurisdictions and sectors.
D. To address private credit asset valuation risks on a cost-effective basis, regulators should consider mandating either independent external valuations or strengthening managers’ internal governance mechanisms on valuation procedures.
Explanation: A is correct.
Allowing for more frequent redemptions by investors could cause managers to manipulate valuations to discourage redemptions or to make the redemptions conditional upon investing the redeemed funds in other investments controlled by the manager, thereby potentially increasing conduct risk.